Epidemiology course

Course duration: 8 double lessons

Anyone who plans, organises or evaluates epidemiological studies must also make use of quantitative-statistical methods. But even those who want or need to understand and evaluate first-hand studies cannot do so without statistical knowledge. Contentious issues about epidemiological studies in the public may arise from the fact that either inadequate statistical methods are used or statistical statements are misinterpreted.

The aim of this course is to impart methodological skills necessary for epidemiological studies from scratch and to explain it by means of examples.

Speakers

Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Ahrens: Head of the Department of Epidemiological Methods and Etiological Research at the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS GmbH, Bremen

Prof. Dr. Lothar Kreienbrock: Director of the Institute for Biometry, Epidemiology and Information Processing at the University of Veterinary Medicine, Hannover, Germany

Dr. Jürgen Wellmann: Scientific Assistant at the Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Medical Centre Münster

Topic Overview

Part I

• Measures of disease incidences (prevalence, cumulative incidence, years at risk, incidence density)
• Standardisation of mortality rates
• Fundamentals of probability and statistics
• Measures of association between diseases and risk factors (relative risk, odds ratio, attributable risks)
• Types of epidemiological studies (cohort, case-control, cross-sectional)

Course duration: 8 double lessons

Anyone who plans, organises or evaluates epidemiological studies must also make use of quantitative-statistical methods. But even those who want or need to understand and evaluate first-hand studies cannot do so without statistical knowledge. Contentious issues about epidemiological studies in the public may arise from the fact that either inadequate statistical methods are used or statistical statements are misinterpreted.

The aim of this course is to impart methodological skills necessary for epidemiological studies from scratch and to explain it by means of examples.

Speakers

PD Dr. Amely Campe: Research Associate at the Institute for Biometry, Epidemiology and Information Processing at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover

Prof. Dr. Lothar Kreienbrock: Director of the Institute for Biometry, Epidemiology and Information Processing at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover

Dr. Hermann Pohlabeln: Research Associate in the Department of Biometry and Data Management at the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology - BIPS GmbH, Bremen

Dr. Jürgen Wellmann: Scientific Assistant at the Institute for Epidemiology and Social Medicine, University Medical Centre Münster

Topic Overview

Part II

•   Simple epidemiological evaluation procedures
•   Case number calculations for epidemiological studies
•   Bias in epidemiological studies (selection, misclassification and confounding)
•   Stratified evaluation procedures
•   Risk modeling using logistic regression

Course duration: 8 double lessons

Risk assessments are used, among other things, to estimate damage in connection with the import of live animals or animal products, to evaluate possible protective measures in a comparative manner, and thereby to provide management with an objective basis for decision-making. In the area of food hygiene, similar principles are used to evaluate consumer health risks. Animal welfare aspects can also be examined using the risk assessment methodology.

In addition to risk assessment, risk analysis also includes risk communication and management. In this context, risk assessment provides an objective decision-making basis for risk management. In risk assessment, the probability of occurrence of a loss and the extent of the consequences are considered. In the course of risk analysis, it is often possible to identify ways in which risks can be mitigated or avoided and to compare different risk mitigation strategies.

In particular, the fields of microbiology, toxicology, food hygiene, animal epidemiology, and epidemiology contribute to science-based health risk assessments by providing data, information, and expert knowledge. Risk modeling itself is the responsibility of risk assessors as part of an interdisciplinary collaboration. The results of risk assessments are implemented, depending on the nature of the issue, by national or supranational authorities, but also producers (risk management). The whole process of a risk assessment from planning to implementation of the results should be done through a dialogue between all stakeholders, especially involving consumer and producer associations.

The target group of the course includes in particular all those who factually or potentially contribute to risk analyses in the field of food safety, animal health or animal welfare in the context of interdisciplinary collaboration. Furthermore, the course also addresses persons with a professional interest in results of risk analyses and those who are generally interested in risk analyses.

Speakers

Prof. Dr. Matthias Greiner: Head of Department at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Berlin and Professor at the University of Veterinary Medicine Hannover (TiHo)

PD Dr. Christine Müller-Graf: Head of Division (Epidemiology, Biometry and Mathematical Modelling) at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR), Berlin

Course units

• Terminology of risk analysis (standards according to OIE, Codex Alimentarius)
• Basic concepts of risk modeling (deterministic, stochastic models, simulation)
• Modeling tools
• Qualitative risk assessment and quantitative risk assessments with application examples

Course duration: 8 double lessons

Disease events in individual hosts, herds, and entire host populations are now increasingly understood as changing dynamic systems and managed accordingly. The resulting abundance of decision-relevant mechanisms and processes quickly complicates the consistent interpretation of observations or the comprehensive testing of causal hypotheses. Evidence-based decisions, e.g., in the control context, appear difficult. Increasingly, dynamic epidemiological models are being developed to represent the complex interplay of mechanisms and processes involved in the spread of disease in host populations. Such models can be used to recreate possible consequences of decisions and to weigh alternatives. For example, what impact would a change in a biological assumption have on the expected success of a control measure? This immediate function of models as a deduction and decision support tool is the focus of the course.

During the seminar, background knowledge and practical experience in the development and use of models will be provided. It will be demonstrated that it can be useful to use models, regardless of the mathematical background of the person seeking an answer. In addition, it will be shown how very sophisticated models can be created through many years of experience and thanks to modern information technology.

Models are jointly developed that reproduce the transmission dynamics of diseases in the computer, and their statements are interpreted. No previous knowledge is required. Guided experimentation and freedom for own creative ideas are taken into account in the conception as well as the exchange among each other. The background knowledge to be imparted will be illustrated by examples from the 20 years of modeling activity of the lecturers in the environment of science and politics of animal welfare.

The course is aimed at non-modelers who deal with diseases in populations in the course of their work and who (might) be confronted with the statements of epidemiological models. The seminar is equally suitable for scientists and practitioners in health and animal health agencies and research institutions, as well as for students of human and veterinary medicine and natural sciences.

Speakers

Hans-Hermann Thulke & Martin Lange: Scientists at the Department of Ecological Systems Analysis of the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) in Leipzig. The Leipzig Project Group Ecological Epidemiology (EcoEpi - www.ecoepi.eu) has a proven track record in providing model-based advice to national and international decision-making bodies on various problems in animal health policy, disease management and epidemiology.

Course Units

The course is conducted over four half-day sessions of two double hours each. The parts cannot be taken individually. The course includes illustrative lectures and practical exercises. Exercises are done on provided computers or, optionally, on the student's own laptop (program installation required).

Content

•     Classical approach to disease description
•     Early models of infectious diseases in host groups
•     Guided NetLogo-based experimentation with different model concepts
•     The step from the deterministic compartmental view to the reflection of biological diversity of host-pathogen interactions
•     Guided NetLogo-based development of an individual-based infection spread model
•     Guided independent model application to reproduce model-based answers to selected problems in animal disease control
•     Example-oriented outlook on modern applied disease modeling to solve real-world decision problems
•     Translating model-based insights into recommendations for action on an actual disease situation