CoastalFutures-Scenarios to Promote Sustainable Futures of Contested Marine Areas

Project description

Marine mammals, such as grey seal, harbor seal and harbor porpoise, are important top predators in the ecosystem of the North Sea and Baltic Sea. All species have a high conservation status in Europe and are sensitive to changes and disturbances in their environment. They are therefore considered important indicators of the state of marine ecosystems. In order to consider this group of species in ecosystem models accordingly and also to make assessments as well as management measures, both the demands on their habitat and the influences of anthropogenic stressors have to be included.

The aim of this project is to integrate the occurrence of marine mammals in the novel cross-scale end-to-end (E2E) model system being developed in CoastalFutures in an interdisciplinary manner. With this model system, the project creates a virtual environment to study impacts of climate change and anthropogenic uses on ecosystems and key species, and to test different management measures that have not yet been evaluated, especially in the context of marine mammal population protection and conservation.

The project will improve prediction of temporal and spatial changes in marine mammal abundance and develop an understanding of those processes that influence interannual and seasonal variability in species distribution. In addition, model development involves stakeholders to evaluate current and potential use patterns and test management actions. Anthropogenic stressors, such as the effects of offshore wind energy development, will be investigated through telemetry studies of harbor seals to draw conclusions about the effects of noise emissions on energy budgets via recording and modeling behavioral responses. This will allow for a multifactorial, more comprehensive assessment of human-caused underwater noise. The use scenarios will be run in combination with scenario simulations of regional impacts of future climate change using the marine mammal distribution models and coupled with the end-to-end (E2E) model system.

As a result, the project generates urgently needed action knowledge for the implementation of political-societal targets, e.g. from the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and enables the evaluation of the effectiveness of management options for the protected good 'marine mammals' under future climate conditions.

DAM's second research mission investigates effects of use and pollution for different marine regions in North and Baltic Seas

CoastalFutures Website (entire consortium)